Minggu, 16 Oktober 2011

1 USD = 1 RMB ??? Equilibrium possibility

Just another day I was told that my friend has lost her job in East Coast, at the same time I got news that another friend got millions of USD capital for her innovative social media platform induction by venture capitalists in the Golden State (CA). Apparently there is a mixed signals in global economy as investment have shifted and innovation has accelerated.

South-East Asian countries (i.e. Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and so forth) are warning their export based businesses to guard against the declining demand from European and American. Except countries which still relies on exporting raw material abroad, these countries must accelerate their export to other alternatives such as Middle Eastern and Africa. While China and its territories such as Macao and HongKong is handling their own inflation curbing attempt and intentional housing cooling down policy creation.

Several years ago I still remember when I made a purchase 1USD still equals to HKD 7.78 and equals to RMB 8.6 Then Yuan (RMB) kept strengthening to 1 USD = RMB 7.8 that make HK and China stood equally. Then this summer 2011 was an eye opener when I found a Hongkong merchant so happily received Chinese Renminbi as the payment. I was supposed to pay bill in the amount of HKD500 but I was low on HKD cash on my hand at the moment so knowingly I handed him RMB500. Same color, red! Different pictures! He was so happy... he just makes 20% more on his service and merchant because 1 USD now equals to HKD7.7 and equals to RMB 6.3 .... I consider it tips for him...

So the shift is happening but US still holds the most innovation and creating non-tangible service, rights, patents, etc. that can be used and produced worldwide. Considering the current Wall Street protest, protest by the jobless young people in France few months ago, some demonstrations in other parts of the world, I conclude that unemployment and people's well being is the root cause.

It arrives to the coming of equilibrium, European and American countries must lower their wage standard or strong GDP Asian countries must raise their wage standard.
With the wide spread difference of living cost between continents, one must evaluate carefully but it is coming because it is epidemically global. 

For a simple view: 
A regular corporate accountant with 2-5years experience will make annually around:
USD 55,000 in US, or HKD 200,000 in HongKong, or RMB 120,000 in China, or IDR 48,000,000 in Indonesia
Whereas the price of a loaf of bread respectively are:
USD 5.49, HKD12, RMB 10, and IDR 7,000
So in terms of loaf of bread the accountant can afford as follows:
in US 10,018 loaves, in HK 16,667 loaves, in China 12,000 loaves and in Jakarta 6,857 loaves
Certainly the US accountant makes much more in terms of nominal but HK accountant wins in terms of purchasing power and thus, it leads to a lot of companies, even US companies,  moves their manufacturing, their service center, their supporting office (accounting & financial analysis, IT, etc.) to Asian countries where labor costs are low.

Therefore, in order to remain competitive, US will eventually leveling its salary and compensation structure mirroring other countries and when price of all things inflated, the real purchasing power will decrease and help the coming or closing gap of the equilibrium 1 USD = 1 RMB possibility.

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