Thorough sales forecast is deemed important when an entrepreneur is juggling between limited capital and demand to produce more variety of products and/ or services. In order to accurately produce and replenish products or services in a new business, we can take simple approaches as follow:
1. Determine as many facts as possible from city government/ agency data or from readily available trusted internet data: population of your target city, population demographic, the number of direct competitors or similar company who is doing similar business to yours.
2. Calculate the number of potential customer from the pool of potential consumers who might be interested on your ideas of product or services. Divide by the number of competitors. It will yield the number of potential customers from the pool of general potential 'might be' interested consumers.
Add with the number of existed competitors' customers if this data is available. This number will give you the potential slice of pie's size that you can grab in general
3. Determine the possible frequency of your product/ service consumption.
If your customer is a business instead of end-user, you need deeper analysis on the business customer's end-users such as how many and how frequent they buy the product / service as well. This number multiply by the target slice of pie's size above will be your target production in a certain period of time
4. Manage your budget or capital accordingly by scheduling ingredients' cost, labor cost, sunk cost, overhead cost (such as: space rent, utilities, fixed salary and benefit, etc).
5. Then, you can derive your sales forecast number, projected revenue and expenses, and forecasted profit.
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